1 in 4 Cars Sold Globally Will Have Level 3 Autonomy by 2030, Study Says

Autonomous Vehicle Developers Bet on Sensor Fusion Solutions and L2+ Features. Image provided by Frost & Sullivan

August 12, 2019      

SANTA CLARA, Calif. – A new report from Frost & Sullivan says that Level 4 and 5 Autonomy for self-driving cars is taking time, but that by 2030, one in four cars sold globally (18 million) is expected to have Level 3 autonomy or above. For this year, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and Tier 1 suppliers are focusing on L2+ features that will add to the value proposition for advanced driver assistance systems, the research firm said.

“Sensor fusion will be a major aspect of autonomous vehicle development,” said Ayan Biswas, mobility senior research analyst at Frost & Sullivan. “The transition from discrete sensor processing to sensor fusion will be through either raw sensors or smart sensors based on E/E [electrical/electronic] architecture. Meanwhile, the introduction of L2+ and L3 features will create opportunities for the integration of multicore advanced driver-assistance systems domain controller. This will reduce the architectural complexity and weight on the chassis by decreasing the amount of wiring and facilitating high-speed communication and data transmission.”

From ownership to usership

The new report, “Global Autonomous Driving (AD) Industry Outlook, 2019,” provides key market and technology trends shaping future prospects. On the business side, the research offers details on the impact of autonomy, focusing on ways companies can monetize and personalize data as the industry evolves. On the technology front, the study focuses on developments required at the platform level to add redundancies, fuse sensory data and build the necessary computational ecosystem. The study also gives forecasts of the share of vehicles by levels of autonomy. The report is part of Frost & Sullivan’s Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Service program.

“AD will not only focus on ways to generate revenues through new downstream services, it will also affect traditional business models with the adoption of mobility platforms. The industry is expected to shift from ownership to usership, as it progresses toward L5 autonomy,” noted Biswas. “Vehicle platforms need to be designed considering the mechanical and electrical redundancies to ease scaling to L4/L5 in the future.”

Frost & Sullivan offered some additional suggestions on how OEMs can tap into additional growth opportunities, including:

  • Actively investing in startups that focus on autonomous software and service sectors;
  • Differentiate themselves through superior safety and ADAS features;
  • Introduce sensor platforms that focus on sensor fusion and artificial intelligence, which helps capture road data accurately and judiciously;
  • Focus on L2+ feature deployments;
  • Foster cross-collaborations between suppliers and OEMS, which would result in lower development cost and improved solution scalability.

Frost & Sullivan is offering a free summary of the report for any interested companies.